here's the boring learning from history outcome of all this AI infra investment:

in the 1900s there was a boom in railroads investment

a crazy amount of money went to building up up capacity for this new technology thinking those who owned the rails would win big

but timing is hard, construction outpaced demand and railroad companies went bust

however the infra was built and now very cheap and allowed for brand new companies to build all sorts of successful businesses on cheap rail that transformed the world

in the 1990s the same thing happened with telecom and the internet

a ton of money went into fiber, subsea cables, etc predicting all this new demand

they were wrong in the short term and all those companies went bust

but again the infra stayed around and allowed for the biggest companies ever to emerge built on top of this

this pattern shows up over and over. there is excitement over new infra and

- you can't under invest or you are not in the game
- investing the exact right amount is impossible
- so you can only over invest
- this happens collectively with all your competitors

this is actually very good for the world. it's just that the winners people imagine early on usually don't work out

now apply this to GPU infra. it could be different

or...?